What is the 1.5°C threshold?

Our journey to net zero – part 2

The greenhouse effect was first discovered between 1824 and 1896, and later became directly linked to the burning of fossil fuels. However, economic dependency on these fuels, delayed effects of climate change, political and social inertia, as well as misinformation campaigns have all contributed to the slow response to taking action. It’s only in recent decades – as the evidence of climate change has become undeniable and its impacts increasingly severe – that there has been significant international effort to address this global challenge.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 with the mission of furnishing policymakers at all levels with robust scientific insights to forge effective climate strategies. Fast forward 30 years to the IPCC’s special report issuing a clarion call for urgent action, highlighting the necessity to cap global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial averages to avert the gravest consequences of climate change. These include catastrophic weather phenomena, the irreversible degradation of natural habitats, and acute jeopardy to global food security and health. To avoid breaching this critical limit necessitates the global achievement of net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.

The margin of 1.5°C might appear minimal, yet in the context of Earth’s intricate systems, its implications are profound, mirroring the narrow bounds of human body temperature where a minor deviation can signal illness.

Adhering to the 1.5°C cap is essential for the planet’s health and will help achieve these significant benefits:

• Mitigating the escalation of biodiversity loss and safeguarding countless species from extinction.
• Preserving coral reefs, crucial for marine biodiversity, from almost certain decimation at a 2°C rise.
• Reducing the incidence and severity of heatwaves and droughts, with profound implications for water resources, agriculture and public health.
• Lowering the risk and intensity of extreme weather events, including storms and floods.
• Enhancing food security by alleviating the stress on agricultural yields.
• Curtailing the economic toll of climate change, spanning healthcare, infrastructure and productivity losses.
• Diminishing the prevalence of climate-induced health conditions, ranging from heatstroke to disease transmission.
• Upholding global equity, as the adverse impacts of climate change disproportionately burden the world’s most disenfranchised communities who have contributed the least to the crisis.
• Averting the crossing of irreversible climatic tipping points, such as the melting of polar ice sheets.

Committing to a net-zero trajectory by 2050 is not only an environmental imperative but also a moral duty to future generations, ensuring that we do not exhaust our natural resources or leave a legacy of a degraded planet.

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